中国财政赤字与贸易收支不平衡的原因与对策——基于1995—2008年的经验数据

Causes for and Solutions to the Fiscal Deficit and Trade Imbalance of China:Based on the China’s Economic Data(1995—2008)

财政赤字与贸易收支不平衡的关系一直是理论界与决策部门密切关注的问题。运用文献资料法、数理统计法对1995—2008年的财政收支和贸易收支数据进行定性、定量分析,实证结果表明,贸易收支、财政赤字、GDP以及实际有效汇率变量4个变量之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,财政赤字、实际汇率、经济增长率与贸易收支呈负相关效应,长期内财政赤字扩大、GDP的增加和人民币升值会导致贸易收支减少。为此,提出在保持经济快速健康发展的情况下增加财政收入,提高财政资金的使用效率,健全社会服务保障体系,推进人民币汇率机制改革等解决我国财政赤字与贸易收支不平衡问题的政策建议。

The relationship between fiscal deficits and trade imbalance is always focused on by scholars and decision-making departments.This paper analyzes the changing relationship between fiscal deficits and trade imbalance from 1995 to 2008,with the method of documentary and statistics on data of financial revenue and balance of trade through qualitative and quantitative analysis.The results show that there is long-term and stable relationship among the four variables of trade income,fiscal deficit,GDP and actual effective exchange rate,while there is negative relation effect among fiscal deficit,actual exchange rate,economic growth rate and trade income and expense.Thus,this paper puts forward policy suggestions aimed to solve fiscal deficit and trade imbalance,such as increasing fiscal revenue under the condition of keeping rapid and healthy economic development,improving efficiency of using fiscal capitals,strengthening social service security system,promoting reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism,etc.