局部地区区域性强降水预报试验

The prediction test of regional strong rainfall for sectional region

研究了用专家系统技术对三峡地区做区域性强降水预报的可行性．根据天气学原理和方法及预报员的实际工作经验，收集相关信息，利用１９６１—１９９４年每年的１０月至来年１月的逐日历史天气图资料和三峡东部６站逐日降水量资料，建立了三峡地区有无区域性强降水的专家系统预报知识库，并采用ＭＥＳＴ专家系统工具建立相应的专家系统．初步试验结果表明。

The realizing of predicting regional strong rainfall in the three gorge region using Expert system is analyzed. Based on principles of synoptic meteorology and experience of forecasters, collected knowledge, efforts are made to set up predicting rules using the 6-station precipita tion data over the east of three Gorge region and weather chart data from October to January of period 1961-1994.An Expert system is built using MEST tool. This system is found on trial to be effective.