时变参数PGM(1,1)模型在变形监测中的应用研究

TIME-VARYING PARAMETER PGM(1,1) MODEL USED IN DEFORMATION MONITORING

给出了时变参数PGM(1,1)模型的数值解法,比较了其与GM(1,1)、PGM(1,1)模型的预测精度,分析了灰区间作为预测结果的可靠性。

We provide a numerical method of the time-varying parameter PGM（1,1）model.We compare TPGM（1,1）model with GM（1,1）and PGM（1,1）model in prediction precision,and analyse the reliability of grey interval,which is considered as a result of prediction.