设备修复率对系统可靠性的影响研究

Analysis of the effect of equipment repair on system reliability

采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对高温气冷堆设备冷却水系统可靠性进行了分析,验证了计算模型的合理性,并进一步研究了系统可靠性随修复率的变化,以及不同修复率下系统失效的主要贡献因素。结果表明,随修复率增加,系统失效概率下降速率变缓,且系统失效的主要贡献因素随修复率不同而发生变化:当修复率极低或不维修时为设备独立失效;随修复率增加,主要贡献因素过渡为设备共因运行失效;修复率进一步增加,设备共因需求失效成为主要贡献因素。分析认为,其原因是随修复率增加,故障设备被修复的概率增大,其再次投入的可能性也随之增加。

The reliability of the component cooling water system in the high temperature reactor （HTR） was analyzed by using the Monte Carlo simulation, the validness of the Mont Carlo Simulating model was verified, and the effect of the equipment repair rate on the system reliability and the major contributors to the system failure under different repair rates were discussed. The results show that, with the increase of the repair rate, the decreasing rate of the system failure probability decreases, and the main contributors to the system failure vary with the repair rate： when there is no repair or the repair rate is very low, the main contributor is independent failure; with the repair rate increasing, the main contributor is changed to common cause operation failure; and when the repair rate is more higher, the main contributor is common cause demand failure. The reason is that the higher the repair rate, the higher the repair probability of fault devices, so the probability of using these devices again is higher.