中长期预报在邢台海河流域的应用

Application of the Long Term Forecast in Haihe River Basin of Xingtai

在分析子牙河水系海河流域降雨径流的基础上,应用回归统计法,通过优选因子进行预报。西台峪站位于邢台临城县境内,属半干旱、半湿润山丘区,年降水主要集中在6-9月,其河流特性为暴涨暴落。通过优选因子建立预报方程。因子的选取我们从物理成因和数理统计等各方面来考察各个影响因素,挑选出具有明确物理意义的预报因子,并把其应用到实际工作中去。探讨了中长期预报在半干旱、半湿润地区的适用性,对计算成果分析遇到的问题提出了一些解决方法。

The paper is based on analysis of the Ziya River system Hai River Basin runoff and takes the regression statistics method, forecasts by optimizing factors. The West Taiwan valley station is located in Xingtai Lincheng County, is a semi -arid, semi -humid Hilly, its annual rainfall is concentrated in June - September, its character is sudden rising and sharp dropping. The prediction equation is established by optimizing factor. Factor is also the causes of our physical and mathematical statistics from other areas to examine various factors, selected with a clear physical meaning of the prediction factor, which is applied to the actual work. The article discusses the long - term forecasting in semi - arid, semi - humid areas applicability and puts forward some solutions to some problem on analysis of the calculation results.