乘用车与商用车两大市场运行规律比较分析

Comparative Analysis on Passenger Car and Commercial Vehicle Markets Operation Rules

文章分析了乘用车与商用车两大市场运行规律共同点与差异性,其目的是为汽车行业有关方面合理规划、发展和决策提供参考。采用作者提出的"车市波动分析法"绘制出汽车、乘用车和商用车市场3种最常用的波动图和数据表,根据曲线走向和有关参数对比,得到两大车市实际运行情况及以下主要结果:中国车市2009年底已进入"第6次扩张期"并达到创记录的"扩张高峰",2010年1—4月仍在"扩张高峰期"运行,但增速回落。据此预测,2010年乘用车增长幅度为15%～18%,商用车增长幅度为10%,汽车年产1560～1600万辆。

In order to provide reference for rational plan,development and decision in automotive industry,the common grounds and differences of passenger car and commercial vehicle markets are analyzed.Adopting ＇fluctuation analytical method of auto market＇,three kinds of fluctuant graph and data sheet of the automobile,passenger car and commercial vehicle are made.Based on graph trend and parameter contrast,the two market operation status and main results are concluded.In the end of 2009 China＇s auto market had been in ＇the 6th expanding period＇ and had reached ＇expanding peak period＇—break the record.From January to April in 2010 it had been in the ＇expanding peak period＇,but increasing speed is declined.On this prediction,in 2010 the increasing amplitude of passenger cars is 15%～18%,commercial vehicles is 10% and annual automotive production will be 15.60～16 million.