城域突发事故灾害发生机理探索

Exploration on the Occurring Mechanism of Urban Area Emergency Disasters

城域突发事故灾害发生机理涉及事故灾害致因、演化过程、发展规律3个主要方面;从典型事故致因理论入手,探索城域突发事故灾害致因有本质原因、基础原因和直接原因;事故致因要素之间的综合作用是城域突发事故灾害发生机理研究的关键,可考虑建立与之对应的数学模型,运用突变理论,对演化过程进行分析,指出城域突发事故灾害演化是一个流变-突变过程,并满足尖点突变模型,引发因素和控制因素两个参数决定事故状态的变化;总结城域突发事故灾害的发展规律,指出城域突发事故灾害沿链条传递,并呈现一定周期性,研究成果可为事故灾害的预防与控制提供借鉴。

The occurring mechanism of emergency disasters includes the 3 aspects of accident causation,accident evolution and accident development law.Firstly,the essential,basic and direct causes for urban area emergency disasters are explored based on typical accident causation theories.Then,considering that the synthetic action of accident factors is the key to analyze the occurring mechanism of urban area emergency disaster,a corresponding mathematical model based on mutation theory is constructed to analyze its evolution process.Analysis shows that the evolution process of urban area emergency disaster is a rheology-catastrophe one that meets cusp mutation model,and the trigger factor and the control factor are the two parameters of determining accident state.Finally,the development laws for urban area emergency disasters,namely transmitting in chain and with period,are summarized.This study provides guidance for emergency disaster prevention and control.