灰色均生函数模型及其在航空装备事故预测中的应用

Model of Grey-mean Generating Function and Its Application to Aviation Equipment Accident Prediction

提出一种航空装备事故的灰色均生函数组合预测模型。该方法先建立给定事故时序的灰色GM(1,1)模型,然后再利用残余信息构建均生函数模型。从算例结果可看出,该模型建模过程简单,预测精度总体上好于灰色马尔柯夫预测模型,更优于单独使用灰色模型的预测精度。从而表明:将灰色GM(1,1)模型和均生函数模型有机结合,由前者揭示航空装备事故的发展趋势,后者描述其随机摆动特性,能够较好地刻画航空装备事故的发展变化规律,为航空装备事故提供了一种可行的预测方法。

A hybrid prediction model of grey model and mean generating function for aviation equipment accidents is proposed.The method firstly establishes GM（1,1） model for the accident time series given,and then uses the residual information to construct Mean Generating Function model.An example demonstrates that the model has a simple modeling process,and that its prediction precision is better than that of Grey-Markov prediction model,as well as that of GM（1,1） model alone.Thus,the organic combination of GM（1,1） model with mean generating function model,due to the former revealing the total development tendency of aviation equipment accidents and the latter describing random swing characteristic of aviation equipment accidents,can preferably depict the development law of aviation equipment accidents.It is an effective and feasible prediction method for aviation equipment accidents.