基于偏离-份额分析法的新疆产业结构与经济增长空间差异分析

Study on Spatial Differences of Industrial Structure and Economic Growth in Xinjiang Based on Shift—Share Method

采用偏离-份额模型,评价区域经济结构优劣和自身竞争力的强弱,说明新疆区域经济发展和衰退的原因,研究改革开放后新疆区域产业结构和区位因素对经济增长的影响作用及其类型和空间分布.结果表明,新疆绝大部分区域的经济增长水平低于全疆平均水平;由产业结构特征和区位因素所确定的不同经济发展类型的区域在空间分布上呈相对集聚趋势;接近80%的区域在经济发展过程中受区位因素限制,导致经济增长缓慢、充分体现了区位因素对新疆经济发展的阻碍作用;具有较高的发展水平和带头作用的县市都具有明显的产业结构优势,说明在恶劣的区位条件大背景下,合理的产业结构组织是实现经济快速增长的重要驱动因素.

Shift-Share method is a kind of international universal analysis method accounts for the reasons of regional economic development variety. This paper conducted a deep research on the connection between the regional industrial structure and economic development variety via using Shift-Share analysis in city county level, and explained the reasons of regional economic depression in Xinjiang. By the means of evaluating regional industrial structure and competitive capability , the whole sudy area was divided into four diffident economic growth types： First one include the regions which have both industry structural advantage and competitive advantage, 5 diffident cities and counties belong to this type, and account for 5.88% of whole study area; Second one include the regions which have industry structural advantage and competitive disadvantage, 21 diffident cities and counties were included in this type, and have the proportion of 24.71%; Third one include the regions which have industry structural disadvantage and competitive advantage, 14 diffident cities and counties belong to this type, and account for 16.47% of whole study area; Last one include the regions which have both industry structural disadvantage and competitive disadvantage, 45 diffident cities and counties were included in this type, and have the proportion of 52.94% . We can see from the results that, firstly, the average economic growth rate of most regions in Xinjiang commonly under that of Xinjiang; Secondly, distribution of cities and counties with similar economic growth characteristics showed the tendency of spatial centralization; Thirdly, poor competitive capability and regional back ground are the main reasons caused the slow economic growth of approximately 80% of cities and counties in Xinjiang; Finally, Some cities and counties with relatively high economic development level have remarkable advantage in their industrial structure, so it can be achieved that under the poor competitivecapability and regional back ground, the proper organization and adjustment of regional industrial structure have a great significance on promoting economic rapid growth in Xinjiang.