强烈地震孕育与发生的地点、时间及强度预测的思考与探讨

Ponder and research on the genesis and occurrence of strong earthquakes and the prediction of their place,time and intensity

进入21世纪以来,全球范围内强烈地震频频发生,势已进入到一个新的地震活动时期.我国大陆内部、周边和台湾岛内一系列强烈地震(Ms≥6.5)的发生,特别是2008年5月12日汶川M_s 8.0大地震的突发与其震前的异常平静表明:地表与上地壳均未见有明显的或确切能构成短、临强烈地震预测的浅表层活动过程,大地震由深部壳、幔物质运动,即深层动力过程所致.基于对强烈地震孕育、发生和发展的初步研究提出:(1)面对强烈地震的预测必须强化震源深部介质和构造环境的研究与探索,以达对未来地震发生地点的预测.(2)在地震强烈活动地区长期坚守介质破裂效应及其派生物理响应的井中观测,即"抚模"震源区介质与结构的动态"脉搏",以达对地震发生时间的逐步逼近或预测.(3)深入剖析强烈地震活动区、带、点的深、浅层空间结构与动力过程,历史地震在地震活动地域的纵向和横向的分布特征及可靠前兆信息的同步性经验和统计效应与发展态势,以对未来强烈地震发生强度的估计.这三个方面均必须以地壳深部信息的采集和研究为前提,是地震学和地震预测深化研究与探索的必经之途!

In the 21st century, strong earthquakes occur frequently in the world, especially in the region of southeastern Asia, and it has been into a new period of earthquake activities. Considering the serial of earthquakes （Ms≥6. 5） occurred in China continent, surrounding and Taiwan island, especially the outburst and abnormal peace in advance of Wenchuan MsS. 0 earthquake of May 12, 2008, we can see that there is little shallow active process on surface and in upper crust that can be detected for short-term earthquake prediction, thus this earthquake is totally the result of the movement of deep crust-mantle substance. Based on the preliminary findings of preparation, occurrence and development of strong earthquakes, we propose that. （1） enhance the research of deep substance and tectonic environment in regions of strong earthquake activities, so that to predict the place of future earthquakes; （2） persistently monitor the fracture effect of medium and derivative physical-mechanical response in regions of strong earthquake activities, so that to predict the time of future earthquakes; （3） deeply analyze the deep and shallow space structure and dynamical process in regions of earthquakes activities, the vertical and lateral distribution feature synchronism of reliable precursory information, empirical, statistical effect and developing trend, so that to predict the intensity of future earthquakes. These three aspects mentioned above are necessary for the deep study and probe in seismology and earthquake prediction, but the premise is collection and study of deep information in crust.