新疆棉区划分与可持续性评价

A STUDY ON THE DIVISION OF COTTON AREA AND ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY IN XINJIANG

本文根据新疆棉花生产现状、棉区划分的基本思路和依据，系统地研究了全疆 棉区的区域性、流域性和适应性划分，从而对全疆棉区生产发展进行了可持续性评价，在“发 展满意度”、“持续度”基础上，提出了棉区发展的“优势度”、“集聚度”、“规模度”、“饱和度”四 个概念，设计了评价模型及其相应指标体系，进一步将全疆６０个产棉市县、１００个产棉兵团农场分为可持续性、基本可持续性、初步可持续性和非可持续性四个类型。

Xinjiang is one of major cotton production regions in China with the most superiority of its total sown areas, products output and per capita occupation. In 1997, cotton outputs and total sown areas of Xinjiang were 8. 84 × 10~5 hm^2 and1. 19×10~6t, made up 19. 78 % and 25. 71 % of China(4. 49 × 10~6 hm^2 and 4. 60 × 10~6t), and had an outstanding position on cotton production in whole China, became a strategically industry in economic development of Xinjiang. At pre- sent, the plantation of cotton production with high quality long- staple cotton is rapidly devel- oped in south Xinjiang, a specialized cotton production belt along the Yarkan River and The Tarim River is established; the production areas of cotton with high quality in north Xinjiang are strengthened and improved; the ultra long-staple cotton plantation region in east Xinjiang is steadily enlarged. In this paper, beginning with the current situation of cotton of Xinjiang, the divided foundation ideas of cotton areas are proposed, a systematic analysis is made on regional division, drainage division and suitable division as well as the allocation of cotton areas, and sustainable development of cotton production in Xinjiang is estimated. Based on'development-satisfaction degree'and 'development-coordination degree', four basic conceptions of 'superiority degree', 'accumulation degree', 'scale degree', 'saturation'are put forward for the first time, the esti- mating model and the corresponding indication systems are designed, the 60 cotton counties and cities, the 100 cotton farms of Xinjiang Production Corps are divided into four types: sustain- ability, basic sustainability, elementary sustainability and non-sustainability, so that the theo- ries and practical basis of decision - making are provided for enriching academic research of agri- cultural sustainable development and allocation of cotton production of Xinjiang.