国际橙汁价格波动及其影响因素的分析

International Orange Juice Price Volatility and Its Influencing Factors

以1981-2006年联合国粮农组织的统计数据作为样本区间,解析了国际橙汁价格的波动趋势,并通过构建协整模型对国际橙汁价格波动的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明,世界橙汁出口量每增加1个百分点,国际橙汁价格则下降0.5个百分点;世界人均国民收入每增加1个百分点,国际橙汁价格则上升1.25个百分点。因此,为保持国际橙汁价格的相对稳定,世界橙汁各主产国应采取相应措施,促进全球橙汁产量和出口量的稳定持续增长。

Taking 1981-2006 statistical data of the UN＇ s FAO as a sample span, this paper analyzes the trend of international orange juice price fluctuation, and empirically analyzes the factors influencing international orange juice price fluctuation shows that the price of international orange juice will by building a co-integration model. The result be decreased by 0.5% if the export of it increases by 1%; the price of international orange juice will be increased by 1.25% if the world national income per capita increase by 1%. Here, in order to maintain the relative stability of international orange juice price, all the world＇ s main producing countries of orange juice should take appropriate measures to keep growth of global orange juice production and export stability.