北方沿海地区水资源可再生能力的多层次多指标可变模糊评价

Multi-hierarchy and multi-indexes variable fuzzy sets theory for evaluation of water resources renewability of northern coastal area

基于二元水循环模式和北方沿海地区水资源可再生性的基本特点,构建了水资源可再生能力评价的递阶层次指标体系,并应用粗糙集理论去除了冗余指标信息。应用可变模糊集理论,建立了水资源可再生能力评价的多层可变模糊模型;并利用基于离差最大化的组合赋权法确定指标的组合权重,提高了权重运用的可靠性。实例应用表明,水资源自然可再生能力低是影响大连市水资源可再生能力的主要因素;对2020规划水平年的社会可再生能力评价结果表明,节水、非传统水源利用以及跨流域调水工程是提高该地区水资源社会可再生能力的有效措施;敏感性分析表明,大伙房水库引水、中水回用、城镇生活节水、海水直接利用、农业节水、工业节水等措施依次为影响大连市水资源社会可再生能力的主要因素。

In this paper an indexes system for evaluation of water resources renewability（WRR） is constructed by applying the binary-hydrological-cycle theory for the coastal area of north China,and the redundant indexes of this multiple-hierarchies and multi-indexes system is eliminated by using the rough sets theory.A WRR evaluation model is developed by adopting the variable fuzzy set theory,with its weight values improved by an approach of combined weight determination.A case study of Dalian city shows that a low natural WRR is the major factor that restricts the WRR of this city,and that effective measures for WRR improvement can be found through an evaluation of planned social WRR by the developed WRR model for the year 2020,such as water-saving,non-traditional use of water resources and interbasin diversion.The results of sensitivity analysis show the influencing factors on the social WRR of Dalian,Dahoufang reservoir diversion work,reclaimed water use,urban domestic water-saving,direct seawater using,agricultural and industrial water-saving.