汛期水库调度风险-效益协商决策模型及其应用

Negotiation decision-making model for reservoir operation in flood season and its application

针对汛期水库调度多目标决策的特点,以博弈论和模式识别理论为基础,研究建立了汛期水库调度风险～效益多目标协商决策模型及其求解方法和求解思路。模型求解首先确立协商对策的效用赢得区域;接着利用非线性规划方法求得理想Nash协商解;然后以理想Nash协商解作为标准状态模式,采用模糊模式模型求解每个方案的优属度,优属度最大的方案即为决策问题的最优方案;最后给出一个应用研究实例。

Benefit and risk are two important factors of flood water utilization.By adopting the game theory and the pattern recognition theory,this paper proposes a negotiation decision-making model for reservoir operation in flood season to adjust some conflict between the benefit and the flood risk.In this model,a Nash bargaining solution is obtained by non-linear programming method,and the relative superior membership degree of each alternative is modeled with the method of fuzzy pattern recognition.A case study shows that in comparison of the other models,the proposed simple model is better for the decision-making problems with conflicting objects.