基于线性回归的农业氮磷流失比定量模型研究

Quantitative Model for Nitrogen and Phosphorus Loss Ratios from Agriculture in China Based on Linear Regression

收集整理了32篇已公开发表的学术论文的N、P流失数据63组,对我国农业N、P流失比进行了分析。结果表明,自20世纪90年代以来,我国农业N、P流失比存在显著下降趋势(p<0.05,n=63)。我国农业N素流失和P素流失在化学计量上的变化趋势可能与我国目前频发的水体富营养化存在密切联系。通过线性回归分析,我们发现农业N、P流失比与其影响因子存在良好的线性关系,回归方程为Y=-12.507+0.063X1+0.143X2-1.257X3+4.796X4-11.060X5(X1:降水量;X2:总N输入量;X3:总P输入量;X4:坡度;X5:TN/TP;Y:N/P),但该定量模型仍存在一定缺陷。农业N、P流失比定量模型的研究,对加强水体环境保护具有重要的现实意义。

Based on nationwide 63 data of nitrogen and phosphorus losses from 32 formally-published papers, the nitrogen and phosphorus loss ratios from agriculture in China were analyzed. The results showed a significant decline in N, P loss ratios values （p〈0.05, n = 63） since 1990s. The changes in N and P losses from agricultural systems might be closely connected with widespread eutrophication nationwide. By linear regression analysis, we found that there is a good linear relationship between nitrogen and phosphorus loss ratios from agriculture and their impact factors, the regression equation is Y= -12.057 ＋ 0.063X1 ＋ 0.143X2- 1.257X3 ＋ 4.796 X4- 11.060X5 （X1 ： precipitation, X2： total nitrogen input, X3： total phosphorus input, X4： slope, X5, TN/TP, Y： N/P）. However, there are still some defects in the quantitative model. The quantitative model is of important and realistic in strengthening water environment protection.