泥石流灾害生命损失风险评价初步研究

Preliminary risk evaluation study on life loss due to debris flow disaster

分析了影响泥石流灾害生命损失的4个主要因素,包括泥石流强度、泥石流发生时间、风险人口脆弱性和泥石流警报时间。在目前研究的基础上,将泥石流灾害生命损失风险定义为一次泥石流灾害发生概率与其可能造成的潜在死亡人数的乘积,初步建立了泥石流灾害生命损失风险评价模型。根据2003年四川省两次泥石流灾害的有限数据,评估了泥石流灾害造成的生命损失风险,预测结果与实际数据有一定差异,主要原因是风险人口数据的准确性有待提高。

This paper is aimed to study on life loss due to debris flow disasters. In this paper, we have analyzed the influencing factors of life loss based on the characteristics of debris flow disasters, in which four main factors are illustrated： hazard intensity, incidence time, the vulnerability of population at risk, and warning time. On the above basis, this paper has put forward an opinion that the risk of life loss should be the product of the probability of the debris flow disaster with its consequences being the potential mortality. In accordance with the definition, the paper has established a risk evaluation model in which the risk of life loss is the combination of the probability of the event, the population at the risk and its potential mortality. By analyzing the influence of the debris flow hazard intensity, time of disaster incidence, the population vulnerability and warning time on the potential fatality, the ratio of the potential fatality of the population at risk can be estimated. Due to shortage of detailed historical data of such disasters, the paper has to resort to the data of the two debris flow disasters in Sichuan in 2003 as our starting point for estimation. The results show that the predicted outcomes are slightly different from the actual data and the real reason is likely to be that we still do not know exactly all the data of above influential factors, especially the data of the population at risk. Thus, it can be suggested that a lot of case studies should be collected and improve the accuracy of the data so that it is possible for the researchers to test the feasibility of the model further.