模糊综合评价法在液体推进剂贮存风险评价中的应用

Overall fuzzy method and its application to the evaluation of the liquid propellant storage hazards

本文通过建立氧化剂四氧化二氮(N_2O_4)贮存安全评价指标体系,采用层次分析法确定各影响因素的权重分配,运用模糊综合评价方法对液体推进剂贮存中的泄漏风险进行了评价,最终得到液体推进剂贮存泄漏风险的模糊评价结果。结果表明,液体推进剂在贮存中的泄漏风险为第二等级,即风险较大。其影响因素中安全管理所占的权重最大,其次为贮存环境因素、人为因素、贮存设备因素和偶然因素。各因素评价指标的权重反映出它们的相对重要性,相关单位可依此制定安全措施。

The present paper is to introduce our application results of the overall fuzzy method to evaluating the liquid propellant leakage hazards. In view of such features of the hazards assessment, we have set up a storage leakage accident model of N2O4 as a case study sample. For our research purpose, we have analyzed such liquid leakage and classify such accidents into 5 categories, as the safety administration, the containers or other facilities, the environmental conditions, human operational inability as well as the contingency. And for the sake of analysis convenience, each of the above said hazard-laden factors can be put into the evaluation factors or index system and comprised the first layer of the system. Based on the above calculation, an overall evaluation method has been established on the fuzzy mathematic theory so as to evaluate the hazard degrees. The so-called hazard here, which means the hazard probability and its risk involved was assigned into 5 degrees, and the evaluation results finally obtained indicate that the hazard degree is the second, which means a ＂bigger＂ hazard and a hazard process. The key points that may account for such accidents include the safety administration aspect, the environmental conditions, human operational inability, the container quality and some other contingencies. What is more, since the factor or index weighing and calculation of the safety administration aspects is usually higher than other aspects, with the mutual influence of the likely hazard-causing factors, it is critical to reduce the storage leakage by improving the transportation means and the security organization. At the same time, it is also important to ameliorate the environment conditions by enhancing the handling skills of human resources and regular inspection and maintaining of the containers as well as other storage facilities.