上海能源效率变动及其因素分析

The Decomposition Analysis of Shanghai's Energy Efficiency

本文首先就上海能源效率的发展现状进行了分析,结果显示,上海经济总量持续上升、产业结构变动显著,上海能源强度持续下降,但这一趋势近期有所减缓。为了能进一步分析上海能源效率的决定因素,本文构建了能源效率分析的因素分析模型,选用对数平均迪氏指数法(Log Mean Divisia Index)对上海的整体能源效率进行研究,并讨论上海整体能源效率变动的原因。结果表明,以部门强度效应为主、结构效应为辅的两大影响因素共同提高了上海的整体能源效率。最后,本文从优化产业结构、加大科研投资、促进能源结构多元化、加快新能源发展等方面提出了对提高上海能源效率的政策建议。

This paper discusses determinants of Shanghairs energy efficiency and thereby comes up with policy suggestions of energy efficiency improvement. The first section presents the current situation of the output value of Shang hai＇s economy and energy consumption as well as introduces the concept of energy intensity, which is in order to analyze the status of energy efficiency in Shanghai. The conclusion shows that economic output of Shanghai continued to rise, while energy intensity continued to decline. The second section analyzes the corresponding impacts of industry structure shift and real energy efficiency improvement within each in dustry on the overall energy efficiency by decomposition analysis. Results show that intensity effect dominates energy efficiency improvements over structure effect, while both take effect within different time periods.