中国产业结构失衡下国际收支失衡机理分析与实证检验

Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test of China's Imbalance of Payments under Imbalance of Industrial Structural

1994年"双重汇率制"并轨以来,我国国际收支"双顺差"失衡状况显著。理论分析和实证检验的结果显示,我国产业结构失衡对国际收支失衡有着深刻影响。因此,通过产业结构优化来纠正国际收支失衡是一条有效路径。应从发展现代农业、加快现代服务业发展、推进循环经济与低碳经济生产模式、提高技术改造和创新能力、优化产业发展的制度环境等方面入手来改变我国国际收支失衡的现状,实现经济内部均衡与外部均衡发展保持一致。

Since China launched exchange rate reform in 1994, the balance of payments＇ ＂double surplus＂ was a very significantly phenomenon. Theoretical analysis and empirical test results showed that the imbalance of china industrial structural profoundly impacted on the imbalance of payments. It is a valid path to adjust the imbalance of payments by optimizing the industrial structure. It is urgent to develop modem agriculture, speed the step of modern service industry, improve the technical transformation and innovation and optimize institutional environment of industrial development, etc. so as to change the current status of imbalanced payment. Thus, economic internal and external development wiU be at the same pace.