我国事业单位养老保险的代际平衡分析

China's Pension Insurance Institutions of the Intergenerational Balance

本文利用Auerbach(1991)提出的代际核算体系来分析我国事业单位养老保险体系的代际平衡状况和可持续性,并比较了不同的改革方案对财政支出和代际平衡状况的影响。模拟结果显示:如果政府不对事业单位养老保险改革进行补贴或只对老体系的退休人员进行补贴,事业单位养老保险体系存在严重的代际不平衡,将极大损害其可持续性,并且推迟事业单位养老保险改革的步伐不利于减轻未来代的负担;如果政府增大补贴力度,从2009年到2050年每年向事业单位养老保险体系补贴2750亿元,才可能实现代际平衡。

Using the generational accounting approach （ Auerbach, 1991 ）, this paper examines the generational balance and sustainability of the basic pension system in China＇ s Public Service Units （PSUs） , and compares the fiscal and generational impacts of different PSU pension reforms. Our estimates indicate that if the government does not subsidize the PSU pension reform or limit its subsidy to PSU employees retiring from the old regime, the PSU pension system is likely to suffer from severe generational imbalance, which undermines its sustainability. Additionally, delaying the reform will result in greater fiscal burden facing future generations working in PSUs. Finally, generational balance can be reached if the government provides a subsidy of 275 billion RMB to the PSU pension system from 2009 to 2050.