中国旅游热点城市入境客流与收入时空动态演化与错位——重力模型的实证

AN ANALYSIS OF SPACE-TIME DYNAMIC EVOLUTION AND DISLOCATION OF INBOUND TOURISM BASED ON TYPICAL CITIES——WITH THE GRAVITY MODEL AS AN EMPIRICAL RESEARCH

以入境旅游发展业绩指标为依据,选取60个入境旅游热点城市,统计1998—2008年各城市的入境旅游客流和入境旅游外汇收入,并依托重力模型,测算1998—2008各年度以热点城市为代表的中国入境旅游客流分布重心和入境旅游外汇收入重心的经纬坐标;用Google Earth软件,实地指示两类重心在地域空间上的地理位置,实证研究二者的动态演变过程,并分析二者的时空错位现象,揭示中国入境旅游近十年来的地域时空动态演变过程及变迁动因。研究表明:中国入境旅游客流分布重心近十年来大致位于豫、皖两省交界处,中国入境旅游外汇收入重心近十年来大致位于皖、鄂两省交界处,两类重心分布呈现空间错位的现象,且两类重心均呈现出东移南下的变迁之势。

According to the performance of inbound tourism,this paper selects sixty typical inbound tourism cities to research development of China inbound tourism.Owing to annual statistical data of quantity of inbound tourists and inbound tourism foreign exchange income of these typical inbound tourism cities,with the gravity model,it gets center of gravity of China inbound tourists and center of gravity of China inbound tourism foreign exchange income from 1998 to 2008.Due to Google Earth,it discovers locations of each center of gravity from 1998 to 2008.Furthermore,it indicates that each center of gravity is different from the other.Besides,process of the dynamic change of gravities can be shown thanks to this software.Afterwards,it analyzes the phenomenon of space-time dislocation of centers of gravity to reveal the rule of regional space-time dynamic evolution.As a result,research shows that the center of gravity of China inbound tourists in nearly a decade roughly locates in junction of Henan Province and Anhui Province,both of which lie in middle part of China.In addition,the center of gravity of China inbound tourism foreign exchange income in nearly a decade roughly locates in junction of Anhui Province and Hubei Province,both of which lie in middle part of China too.Obviously,there is a phenomenon of dislocation between these two centers of gravity while both of them have a trend shifting eastwardly and southwardly constantly.