就业、出口退税对人民币汇率影响的分析

Impact Analysis of Employment,Export Tax Rebate on RMB Exchange Rate

解决就业始终是中国宏观经济调控的重要问题,而出口部门的增长也始终是解决就业的重要通道。多年来,就业对出口的依赖性不仅没有下降,而是越来越强。国家为支持出口贸易的增长,不断增强出口退税的力度,从而保证就业的增加。但从2005年以来,随着人民币汇率的升值,出口商品竞争力受到削弱,而为保持出口贸易必要的增长率,又不得不大幅度提高出口退税力度,以缓解人民币汇率升值造成的压力。本文的研究表明,出口退税超额支付的结果,固然改善了企业经营绩效,间接增强了出口商品竞争力,但却造成了人民币汇率"低估"的假象。今后,在继续改革人民币汇率形成机制的过程中,科学厘定出口退税的经济职能,合理确定出口退税额的规模,是改革人民币汇率形成机制的必要条件,也是人民币汇率浮动空间的主要经济参数。

Employment is always an important issue of China's macroeconomic regulation and control. At the same time,the growth of the export sector remains an important channel for employment. Dependence of employment on exports is growing rather than declining for years. To support export growth,Chinese Government constantly enhances the export tax rebate so as to ensure employment growth. With the appreciation of RMB exchange rate since 2005,competitiveness of China's export goods has been weakened. But in order to maintain necessary growth rate of export trade,export tax rebate has been greatly improved to ease the pressure of exchange rate appreciation. Our research shows that overpayment of export tax rebate improves business performance and indirectly enhances the competitiveness of exports,but it results in an illusion of 'under-estimated' RMB exchange. In the reform process of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism,we need to scientifically determine the economic functions and reasonable size of export tax rebate. These are the requirements for RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform as well as main economic parameters for the floating range of RMB exchange rate.