人民币汇率、贸易收支与失业率——来自中美两国相关数据的分析

RMB Exchange Rate,Trade Balance and Unemployment Rate:An Analysis with the Relevant Data of China and U.S.A.

人民币升值是否能够改善美国贸易收支失衡?是否能够带来美国失业率的下降?以此争论为背景,本文采用人民币汇率改革以来的中美相关数据作为分析依据,从马歇尔—勒纳条件及中美贸易产品的相似性两个假设出发,分析了后危机时代人民币汇率变动与美国贸易收支失衡及其失业率的关系,主要得出以下几点结论:(1)中美两国之间贸易产品缺乏汇率—需求弹性,人民币汇率变动对美国进出口数量的影响微乎其微;(2)中美两国贸易产品具有较强的互补性,竞争性则较弱,贸易对就业具有促进作用;(3)人民币升值既不能改善美国的贸易收支失衡,也不能带来美国失业率的下降。

Will RMB appreciation make American trade payment balanced or not？ Will it bring a decline of unemployment rate？ Some economists have discussed intensely. This paper proposes tow hypothesis of Marshell- Learner＇s condition and products similarity of China-U. S. A. and analyzes them with some data from the reform on the exchange rate regime of RMB. Some conclusions are drawn after the analysis on the relation, of RMB exchange rate, trade balance and unemployment rate. Firstly, the trade products between China and U.S.A. are lack of price-demand elasticity, so RMB exchange rate movement has very little effect on amounts of American import and export; Secondly, trade goods between China and U. S. A. are more complementary, but not competitive, the complementarity of trade products can absorb many employment; Lastly, RMB appreciation will not make American trade payment balanced, nor bring a decline of unemployment rate.