东亚合作的新态势及中国的战略选择

New Situation of East Asian Cooperation and China’s Strategic Choice

当前东亚合作形势出现了一些新态势:中国的兴起使"机遇论"和"威胁论"同时上升,外部环境更加复杂;美国重返东南亚,试图主导东亚及亚太合作进程;日澳等国提出区域合作新构想;东盟"大国平衡"战略更为明显,东亚合作政策将趋于内向保守。鉴于此,笔者提出了"一个重点(中美协调)"、"两个轴心(中日韩与东盟)"、"三个内环(10+1、10+3、10+6)"、"四个外围(APEC、ARF、SCO、ASEM)"的东亚合作战略构想。

East Asia has witnessed some new situations in regional cooperation ： the rising of China has made talks about both ＂China Opportunity＂ and ＂China Threat＂ more prevalent; the external environment has been made more complicated for China to act ; the United States has attempted to come back to Southeast Asia; Japan and Australia presented respectively new concepts of East Asian Community and Asian Pacific Community ; ASEAN became more ＂balance of- power＂ strategy minded and East Asia will tend to be more passive and conservative in their cooperation policy. Thus the author seggested a new regional strategy for China which can be summarized as： ＂one vital point （Sino -American coordination）＂;＂ two axis（ China, Japan and South Korea paralelled with ASEAN ） ＂ ; ＂three inner circles （ 10 ＋ 1,10 ＋ 3,10 ＋ 6） ＂ and ＂four outer layers（APEC, ARF, SCO, ASEM）＂.