国际体系中的随机性微观事件——以1914年“七月危机”中的欧洲外交为例

Accidental Micro-Events in International System——A Case Study of European Diplomacy in July Crisis in 1914

借鉴自然科学中的混沌系统理论和罗伯特·杰维斯的复杂系统视角,有助于我们更加清楚地展现国际体系中含有意义的随机性微观事件对系统的影响。1914年"七月危机"欧洲外交过程中奥匈帝国的匈牙利首相伊斯特万·迪查在大臣会议上的表现,就是这样一个特定的随机性微观事件。研究这一随机性微观事件,可以揭示微小的孤立事件是如何通过连锁反应最终导致一次世界大战爆发的;同时,利用反事实假设证明,可以说明在国际政治这一混沌系统中,随机性微观事件的差异是如何被系统的过程放大,并最终导致了系统的巨大差异。

The application of Chaos Theory in natural science and Complex Systems theory brought by Robert Jervis helps to clearly demonstrate the influence of the meaningful accidental micro-events in international system. In this paper,we describe the performance of Hungarian Prime Minister of Austria-Hungary, Istvan Ditcha, in the process of European diplomacy in July Crisis, which is particularly an accidental micro-event. A case study of this accidental micro-event will illustrate how these tiny isolated events finally lead to the 1~t World War like a chain reaction. By means of counterfac- tual assumption,we then show that in the chaos system of international politics,any small changes can make great impact on the course and these will lead to the big difference of the system.