中国体育基础设施建设与房地产业发展的影响机制——基于省际面板数据(Panel Data)的实证研究

China’s Sports Infrastructure and Real Estate Development Impact of the Mechanism -Based on Interprovincial Panel Data(Panel Data)An Empirical Study

以1994—2003年全国21个地区省际面板数据为分析样本,运用面板数据的单位根检验、协整分析及误差修正模型等方法,对我国体育基础设施建设与房地产业发展的影响机制进行实证研究。结果表明:各地区体育基础设施建设与房地产业发展均存在单位根现象,为非平稳过程,经一阶差分后随即变为平稳过程,说明各地区体育基础设施建设和房地产业发展均属一阶单整(I1)过程。体育基础设施建设与房地产业发展彼此间存在长期稳定的协整关系,且二者的短期因果关系也同样成立。体育基础设施建设对房地产业发展的弹性系数为0.156 3,房地产业发展对体育基础设施建设的弹性系数为0.320 7。最后就二者展开讨论,并归纳其基本结论,提出针对性建议,以供相关部门决策参考。

In this paper,from year 1994 to 2003 in 21 regions of inter-provincial panel data analysis of the sample,using panel data unit root test,cointegration analysis and error correction model and other methods,to China’s sports infrastructure and real estate industry the impact of the development of an empirical study on the mechanism.The results showed that：Each district sports infrastructure construction and real estate development unit root phenomena exist in non-stationary process,after a first-order differential immediately after the process becomes stable,indicating that regional sports infrastructure construction and real estate development are a first-order single whole I（1）process.Sports infrastructure construction and real estate development of mutual co-existence of long-term stability of the entire relationship,and the short-term causal relationship between the two is also established.Construction of sports infrastructure of the real estate development,elasticity coefficient of 0.156 3,the real estate development of sports infrastructure elasticity coefficient of 0.320 7.Finally the two discuss,and summarize the basic conclusions,put forward specific recommendations to the relevant departments for decision-making.