基于探索性分析方法的导弹对抗作战效能评估

Missile Countermeasure Effectiveness Evaluation Based on Exploratory Analysis Method

针对系统效能评估中存在的不确定因素,采用探索性分析方法研究了网络中心战背景下的导弹对抗作战的效能评估问题。将网络中心战威力归一化为导弹作战单元作战效能的发挥系数,建立了导弹对抗作战Lanchester模型,充分考虑交战双方战力部署和能力指标的不确定性,对"攻击平台优先"和"攻击网络节点优先"两种作战方案进行了探索性分析和比较。仿真结果表明,采用探索性分析方法分析评估导弹对抗作战效能行之有效,能够为作战指挥提供决策依据。

Aimed at the uncertainties in the effectiveness evaluation of the system,an exploratory analysis-based effectiveness evaluation method for missile countermeasure with the background of network-centric war（NCW） is presented.The might of NCW is united as the exertive coefficient of the missile unit,and the Lanchester model of missile countermeasure is constituted.Considering the uncertainties of the military deploying and capabilities,two campaign schemes of ＂priority of attacking the flat＂ and ＂priority of attacking the network node＂ are analyzed and compared.The results of simulation show that it is effective to evaluate the effectiveness of missile countermeasure using the exploratory analysis method and the analysis results can provide decision-making gist for campaign command.