全球货币流动性泛滥与国际金融危机的防范

The Overflow of Global Monetary Liquidity and the Prevention of International Financial Crisis

近年全球金融危机是20世纪80年代以来周期性金融危机的延伸,其结构性原因是全球货币流动性的过剩和泛滥。20世纪70年代以来国际货币体系的结构性缺陷,是全球流动性过剩的制度原因;浮动汇率制下的全球经济失衡,是造成全球流动性过剩的基本机制。21世纪以来,发达经济体过度宽松的货币政策和金融制度的过度创新,大大促进了全球流动性过剩。在一个相当长的时期内,全球流动性过剩带来的可能不是通货膨胀,而是资产市场的价格泡沫,但资产泡沫是不可持续的,必然会出现流动性黑洞和资产价格泡沫的崩溃,导致经济衰退。中国可根据全球流动性过剩与国际金融危机之间的关系,防范未来的国际金融危机。

The ongoing global financial crisis is the extension of the periodic financial crises of the 1980s,whose structural defects could be viewed as the cause for the surplus and overflow of the global monetary liquidity.Over an extended period of time,it is possible that the global excess liquidity may bring about an unsustainable asset bubble,rather than the expected universal inflation.The liquidity black holes and the collapse of the asset bubble would give rise to an economic recession.