中国省份经济周期的福利成本估算和分析

The Estimation and Analysis of Welfare Costs of Provincial Business Cycles in China

基于省份异质性和市场不完善性,测算了中国各省份经济周期的福利成本与经济增长的福利得益。两者的比较分析表明,中国省份经济周期成本不容忽视,其高于美国州级数据的估算结果,经济稳定的重要性并不弱于经济增长。空间计量结果表明,省份经济周期福利成本、经济增长得益和经济稳定的相对重要性与工业化、对外开放、经济发展水平、政府规模等省份特征相关。

Considering the heterogeneity and incomplete market, welfare cost based on the aggregate consumption data maybe underestimates. This paper estimates the welfare cost of business cycle and welfare gain from the economic growth on provincial data. The results show that, the welfare costs of provincial business cycles are very substantial, and higher than the estimation from US states data. The Results from the spatial econometric shows that, the welfare costs of provincial business cycles, the gains from the provincial growth and the importance of the stabilization are related to the provincial characters, such as industrialization, openness, development and government scale.