浙江10地市的出口贸易为何如此不同——对浙江1997～2006年贸易发展影响因素的实证分析

The Empirical Research on Affecting Factors of Foreign Trade Developing in 10 Cities in Zhejiang Province from 1997 to 2006

2007～2008年爆发的美国金融危机对我国对外贸易大省浙江造成了严重影响,然而同为浙江模式的各地市的受影响程度却存在着巨大差别。本文通过针对浙江10个地市1997～2006年贸易发展影响因素的实证分析发现,决定浙江对外贸易发展的因素更多地表现为GDP产值、固定资产投资和工业投资,而较少地表现为对外资的严重依赖。这意味着,应对这次金融危机最好的办法不是提高对外资的依赖度,而更主要地应在于通过增加固定资产投资提高其工业的竞争力。

The outbreak of the U.S. financial crisis, happened during 2007 -2008, had a serious impact on Zhejiang - one of biggest China＇s foreign trade provinces. Though all the cities in Zhejiang share the same trade pattern, the impact to each city shows a huge difference. In this paper, we make empirical analysis on the factors affecting trade development for 10 cities of Zhejiang from 1997 to 2006 and find that the foreign trade in Zhejiang depends much more on the GDP, the investment in the fixed assets and the industry investment rather than the FDI. This means that the best way to protect itself against the financial crisis is not to depend on the foreign capital but to enhance the competitiveness of its industry.