摘要
本文运用协整检验和误差纠正模型,分析人民币汇率水平、汇率波动性和外部需求对中国商品出口的影响。结果显示,人民币汇率对出口有显著的负向影响,外部需求对出口有显著的正向影响,表明现阶段商品出口主要体现为价格优势,出口受外部需求冲击的影响依旧很大。另外,本文在模型中创新性地引入"加入WTO影响"和"汇率改革影响"两个虚拟变量,结果显示,2002年1月中国加入WTO对商品出口有显著的正向影响,2005年8月人民币汇率改革对商品出口有显著的负向影响。本文结论可为我国汇率政策制定提供参考。
This paper uses cointegration and error correction model to analyze the effect of the RMB exchange rate, exchange rate fluctuations and external demand on exports.The results show that the RMB exchange rate has negative effect on export, while external demand has positive effect on export, which shows that the export is mainly embodied in price advantages, with high relevance to external shock.In addition, we added two factors including ＂to join WTO impact＂ and ＂impact of exchange rate reform,＂ as two dummy variables and revealed that in January 2002 China＇s accession to WTO on the export of goods had significant positive effect on export, while the RMB exchange rate reform on 2005 had a significant negative effect.These results may be used as reference for our policy making.
出处
《南方金融》
北大核心
2010年第8期14-18,共5页
South China Finance
关键词
人民币汇率
外部需求
商品出口
协整检验和误差纠正模型
Exchange Rate
External Demand
Commodity Exports
Cointegration and Error Correction Model
