影响南平烤烟生产气象因子的灰色因素分析与应用

Grey factor analysis and application for meteorological factors affecting tobacco production in Nanping

运用灰色系统理论对南平市烤烟生产的相关气象因子与当年烤烟单产进行了比较分析.结果表明,影响南平市全市烤烟单产的气象因子中关联度最大的为大田期≥8.0℃有效积温;影响邵武市烤烟单产的气象因子中关联度最大的为6月份平均气温;影响建阳市烤烟单产的气象因子中关联度最大的为成熟期日平均温度≥20.0℃日数;影响浦城县烤烟单产的气象因子中关联度最大的为活动积温达2600.0℃.d日数.上述4个气象要素是影响当地烤烟单产的最重要因素;5月份平均气温的关联度居第2位,成为影响烤烟单产的第2大影响因子;7月份平均降水量的关联度最小,对烤烟单产的影响最小.

The meteorological factors related to tobacco production and the per-unit yield of the year in Nanping were comparatively analyzed based on the grey system theory.The results indicated that among the meteorological factors affecting the per-unit tobacco yield of Nanping City,the one with the highest correlation was growth period ≥8.0 ℃ of effective accumulated temperature;among the meteorological factors affecting the per-unit tobacco yield of Shaowu City,the one with the highest correlation was the average temperature of June;among the meteorological factors affecting the per-unit tobacco yield of Jianyang City,the one with the highest correlation was the daily average temperature ≥20.0 ℃ days in the ripening phase;among the meteorological factors affecting the per-unit tobacco yield of Pucheng City,the one with the highest correlation was the active accumulated temperature up to 2600.0 ℃·d days.The above four meteorological factors are the most important factors that affect local per-unit yield of tobacco.For the four planting areas,the average temperature of May has the second highest correlation,becoming the second major factors affecting tobacco production;while the average precipitation of July has the lowest correlation and the least impact on per-unit tobacco yield.