2010年上半年中国成品油市场分析及下半年展望

First half 2010 review of China’s oil product market and prospects for the second half

2010年上半年,中国GDP同比增长11.1%,较2009年全年增速加快了2个百分点,支撑成品油供需基本面向好。中国三大类成品油(汽油、煤油、柴油)表观消费量1.17亿吨,同比增长13.8%。其中,柴油消费量7489万吨,同比增长16.3%;汽油消费同比增长8.4%。这既与经济增长和相关刺激消费政策有关,又与主要用油行业的运行特点密切相关;国际原油价格高位运行也为上半年中国成品油市场走高创造了条件。与此同时,上半年原油加工量和成品油产量同步增长,成品油资源过剩状况加剧。下半年,国际油价总体水平将低于上半年;中国经济和工业生产增长面临回调压力,成品油需求增长将明显回落,预计下半年中国成品油表观消费量为1.22亿吨,同比、环比均增长4%。同时大部分新增炼油能力将在下半年释放,供应过剩的局面将继续强化。建议国内石油企业认清市场形势,及早做好应对措施,力争实现成品油资源生产和销售的平稳运行。

China’s economy posted 11.1% year-on-year GDP growth in the first half of 2010,2 percentage points higher than in 2009. Oil product market supply and demand grew accordingly. China consumed nearly 117 million tons of oil products (gasoline, kerosene and diesel), which was up 13.8% year on year. Within that total, diesel fuel consumption reached 74.89 million tons, up 16.3% year on year, and gasoline consumption increased 8.4%. This was due both to growth in the general economy and to economic-stimulus policy, and also to the specific pattern of oil-consumption across sectors, as well as to the high international crude oil prices. Meanwhile, crude oil processing output and refined oil production grew in-tandem, intensifying the oversupply of oil resources. International oil prices will be lower in the second half of 2010 than they were in the first half. Domestic economic and industrial production growth will face callback pressure, bringing down growth in refined oil product demand significantly. We expect domestic consumption of refined oil products to reach 1.22 million tons, with 4% growth both year on year and compared to the first half. With most of 2010’s added refining capacity to be released in the second half, the oversupply situation will be steadily worsen. So we suggest that domestic oil companies in China properly assess the market situation, make a plan as soon as possible, and strive to smooth their production and promote their sale of refined oil product resources.