黄河龙头水库多水月(季)预测的地气图方法

Runoff Prediction of the Longyang Gorge Reservoir from Monthly to Seasonal Time Scales Based on the "Di-Qi-Tu" Method

利用黄河龙头水库流量控制站——唐乃亥水文站1956年以来逐月流量资料和东亚地震资料及黄河产流区久治气象站1975年以来逐月3.2m地温资料,研究了唐乃亥多水期(流量正距平)的成因及其预报。发现东亚6.5级以上强震形成的地热涡经过黄河源区是唐乃亥多水的原因,具体可分为(1)上游强震涡东移;(2)南北地震带中段强震涡北移;(3)西北太平洋强震涡西退;(4)北方强震的"拍频"作用引发地热涡生成。另外,久治站3.2m地温的增暖过程可作为唐乃亥流量增加的指标。

The causes and predictive method of the abundant runoff at Tang-Nai-Hai hydrological station are discussed based on the monthly runoff data since 1956,a baseline in the upper reach of Yellow River,earthquake records in the East Asia,and the monthly soil temperature data of the Jiuzhi station at 3.2 m since 1975.The results show that the abundant runoff at the Tang-Nai-Hai station is closely related to the geothermal vortex in the original region of Yellow River accompanied by the strong earthquake （Ms≥6.5） in East Asia,they are divided： （1）Eastward movement of the geothermal vortex from the upper reach of Yellow River;（2） Nothward movement of the geothermal vortex from the central part of the north-south earthquake belt;（3） Westward movement of the geothermal vortex from the Northwest Pacific;（4） Enhancement of the geothermal vortex due to the strong earthquake in the north of China.In addition,the increase of 3.2 m soil temperatures at Jiuzhi station is also regarded as a reliable signal of the upcoming increase of the runoff at Tang-Nai-Hai station.