基于布朗指数平滑模型的长江航运发展态势

Trend of Changjiang river shipping based on Brown exponential smoothing model

为促进长江航运发展,更加合理有效利用长江资源,采用布朗线性指数平滑法对长江航运发展态势进行分析,认为长江未来货物运输量将呈现增长态势.依据相关理论,在借鉴成功案例基础上,提出管理策略.

To promote the development of Changjiang shipping,while making use of the resources of the Changjiang reasonably and effectively,Brown exponential smoothing model was adopted to predict the trend of Changjiang shipping.As a result,the freight amount will increase.Based on management theory and successful cases,the paper puts forward some countermeasures to solve problems concerned.