探索制订江苏省“十二五”儿童发展规划婴儿死亡率控制标准

Standards of controlling the infant mortality rate of "Shier Wu" development program for children in Jiangsu.

【目的】探索制订"十二五"儿童发展规划婴儿死亡率控制标准。【方法】运用趋势预测法、平均增长量法和校正平均增长量相结合的综合分析比较的方法,对江苏省2001—2008年婴儿死亡率发展变化、江苏省儿童发展规划和中国儿童发展规划纲要婴儿死亡率控制标准的变化规律进行动态分析。【结果】建议江苏省"十二五"儿童发展规划苏南、苏中、苏北地区婴儿死亡率分别控制在4‰、6‰、8‰以下,全省婴儿死亡率控制标准为8‰以下。中国儿童发展规划纲要2015年以2010年为基数下降1/8。【结论】制订标准必须坚持科学依据,做到因地制宜,并留有一定的空间。综合分析比较法有助于控制标准的制订。

【Objective】 To explore the standards of controlling infant mortality rate of ＂Shier Wu＂ development program for children. 【Method】 Dynamically analyze the change of the infant mortality rate from 2001 to 2008,the Children Development Plan in Jiangsu and the change of the infant mortality rate in the Outline of the Program for Chinese Children＇s Development by means of trend-basedforecasting,average growth mensuration and adjustment average growth mensuration. 【Results】 The infant mortality rate should be below 4‰,6‰,8‰ in the south of Jiangsu,the central part of Jiangsu and the north of Jiangsu separately in ＂Shier Wu＂ development program for children of Jiangsu.The infant mortality rate of Jiangsu should be below 8 ‰.The infant mortality rate in 2015 should decrease1/4 than that in 2010 in the Outline of the Program for Chinese Children＇s Development. 【Conclusions】 The scientific basis should be followed in making standard and be acted act according to circumstances and leave the space.The comprehensive analysis should contribute to make the control standards.