洪灾风险评估方法研究综述

Review on Flood Risk Assessment

将洪灾风险评估方法分为指标体系评估法、历史水灾法和模拟评估方法3类并分别进行评述。分析认为:由于指标体系法的模型和参数准确与否均难以验证,一般只用于较粗略的评估;历史水灾法往往需要通过模拟分析进行修正,难以独立地进行洪灾风险评估,在数据方面也面临许多困难;模拟评估方法应充分考虑上下游的水力联系,从而应以流域为基本的评估单元;模拟评估法基于明确的物理机理,具有许多重要优点,其关键制约因素主要是数据可获得性与计算复杂性,近年来已经取得一些进展。如何在数据可获得性、计算复杂性和评估精度之间取得平衡以及如何对评估结果进行实证分析是当前亟待解决的问题,这可能是未来研究的2个重要方向。

Flood risk assessment methods are divided into three types including index system-based assessment method, historical flood hazard-based assessment method and simulation-based assessment method and the three types of methods are reviewed respectively. The index system-based assessment method can only be used for rough assessments because its model and parameters are difficult to validate. The historical flood hazard-based assessment method can not be used for flood risk assessments independently in general because its results often require an a- mendment by simulation analysis and its data requirements are difficult to satisfy. Simulation-based assessment method is based on a clear physical mechanism and has many important advantages. In recent years, some progress has been made on how to deal with the two significant constraints of simulation-based method, i.e. the data availability and the computational complexity. Simulation-based assessment method should give full consideration to the hydraulic interactions between upper- and lower-reaches, in which its research area is the best including an entire catchments. How to obtain a balance among data availability, computational complexity and accuracy and how to carry out verifiable analysis for the assessment results are still the current important problems, which may be the two major directions for the future research.