中国人均CO_2排放分解:一个跨国比较

A Decomposition Analysis of Per Capita CO_2 Emission of China:Based on Cross-country Comparison

本文利用1980-2004年间全球108个国家的跨国面板数据,基于对数平均迪式分解法,将各国人均CO2排放变化分解为收入效应、能耗强度效应和能源碳排放结构效应,总结归纳出各国人均CO2排放的七种模式。在此基础上对中国的人均CO2排放进行了细致研究,发现经济发展水平和能耗强度是中国人均CO2排放的主要因素,而碳排放结构效应的影响很小,未来中国在实施低碳战略的过程中,可以参照其他相应模式,通过优化能源消费结构、降低能耗强度来实施减碳。

Based on the panel dataset across 108 counties from 1980 to 2004,this paper uses Divisia method to decompose the per capita CO2 emission into income effect,energy intensity effect and carbon effect.Seven emission patterns are concluded for all countries.The result suggests that the development level and energy intensity are main driving forces of China＇s per capita CO2 emission,while the impact of carbon emission effect is minimal.To meet the goal of low carbon development,China should promote the usage of renewable energy,as well as improve the energy efficiency.