灰色预测模型在公路货运量预测中的应用

Application of Grey Forecast Mod in Road Freight Forecast

论述了灰色预测模型在公路货运量预测中的应用技术、方法与程序。该方法利用了累加生成手段和微分方程描述的灰色模型,与目前常规货运量预测理论和模型相比,可有效地处理小样本、贫信息的不确定系统,并在一定预测时段内具有良好的预测精度和实用性。

This paper expounds the techniques,methods and procedures of the gray model in highway freight forecasting.The method uses the accumulated generating means and the differential equations describing the gray model.Compared with the cur-rent theories and models,the grey model can effectively deal with small samples,poor information,uncertain systems effectively.In a certain period of time,it has good precision and practicality.