摘要
本文通过对2000年到2008年山东省城乡居民储蓄存款余额月度数据的分析,依据Box-Jenkins的建模思路,建立了山东省城乡居民储蓄存款余额季节乘积ARIMA模型。通过对所建模型预测能力的检验,我们发现该模型能较好的拟合山东省城乡居民储蓄存款余额序列,具有较好的预测能力。应用该预测模型可以对有关部门制定相关政策提供实证上的帮助。
By analyzing the monthly data of the outstanding household savings deposits in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2008,this article has set up an ARIMA product season model of outstanding household deposits,following BoxJenkins＇ modeling ideas.By testing the predictive power of the model,we have found that this model can better fit the balance sequence of the household savings deposits of Shandong Province and it has more predictive ability.With this effective model,we may provide some good help for the relevant governmental departments in making policies.
出处
《广东外语外贸大学学报》
2010年第4期38-41,82,共5页
Journal of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies
