中国建筑业在国民经济体系中后向关联性的计量研究

An Econometric Study of Backward Linkage of Construction Industry in the National Economic System of China

文中采集中国2007年的统计数据,根据Leontief投入产出理论,以国民经济体系中42个产业部门为对象,分析了建筑业与各产业的后向关联性。结果表明,建筑业每增加一个单位的产出,将对其他产业部门产生0.7686个单位的直接需求拉动,直接与间接需求拉动总和则为2.4869个单位,建筑业对完全关联密切的产业消耗量占总消耗量的比例为73.27%,需求较为集中。供给方面,建筑业对第二产业的供给依赖最大,达81.37%,表明我国建筑业依然处于物资消耗的较粗放扩张阶段。

Basing on the input-output theory, this paper analyzes the backward linkage between the construction industry and other sectors of the economy by using the China 42 departments＇ Input-Output Theory in 2007. The analysis shows that the total economy will increase 2.4869 units driven by 1 unit of the construction industry increase. The total increase includes 0.7686 units driven directly. The secondary industry supply the maximum number of needs of the construction industry, and the proportion is up to 81.37%. This implies that our country＇ s construction industry is just in the stage of quantitative expansion. The result also shows that the demand of China＇s construction industry is too concentrated by 73.27% of using the closely related sectors＇ products.