中国可持续协调发展评价模型与实证分析

Evalution model and empirical analysis of sustainable coordinated development in China

人口、资源、环境和经济的可持续协调发展是当前热点问题,关系到国家的长治久安。根据1999—2008年最新统计资料,运用主成分分析法,并将灰色关联分析法(GRA)与层次分析法(AHP)集成赋权,构建中国可持续协调发展评价模型,对1999—2008年中国人口、资源、环境和经济可持续协调发展进行综合评价,同时计算了中国各子系统和整个复合系统的综合发展指数,最后对中国复合总系统的协调状况进行了分析.结果表明,1999—2008年中国复合总系统整体上处于良好协调状态,协调度的平均值为0.8045.结论符合中国可持续协调发展的实际.

Sustainable coordinated development about population,resources,environment and economy is the current hot issues,which is related to the country＇s long-term future.According to statistical data from 1999 to 2008,we determined integrated development index of each subsystem in China.Meanwhile,we adopted the innovative method,which was combined grey relational analysis（GRA） and analytic hierarchy process（AHP）,to calculate the whole system＇s integrated development index and analyze the coordinated development situation of China.The results showed that the level of sustainable coordinated development of China come forth instability in the terms of 1999 to 2008,the average value of coordination degree is 0.804 5.The result is coincident with China＇s actual condition of sustainable development.