基于灰色马尔可夫链模型的航空货运量预测研究

Forecast Study On Airline Freight Volume Based on Gray-Markov Chain Method

航空货运量预测是航空货运发展和决策的基础.将灰色系统理论和马尔可夫链相结合,提出了灰色-马尔可夫链预测航空货运量的预测方法,并且针对我国航空货运量的发展趋势进行了预测.理论分析与实践都表明,该方法不但预测结果可靠,而且能够对航空货运市场的发展趋势进行宏观把握,有利于决策者的经济决策行为.

The forecast of airline freight volume is the basis of airline freight development and decision making.The gray prediction method GM（1,1） was combined with Markov chain prediction method and the gray-Markov chain method was put forward.The gray-Markov method was employed to forecast the future development of the China airline freight volume.It′s proved in theory and practice that the forecast results not only is more reliable,but also can help the decision makers with grasping the airline freight development tendency in general and making proper decision.