盘库存 看房价

Check Inventories: Forecasting House Price in Future

待售商品房知多少？要弄清中国楼市未来六个月的房价走势,得先弄清中国楼市的市场供需,因为市场供需决定价格走向。2010年8月4日,国家统计局公布的数据显示,今年6月末,全国房地产开发企业商品房待售面积为19182万平方米,同比增长6.4%。

When studying China's property market in the next six months to find out the price trend, we should first understand the property market supply and demand, because supply and demand determine the price. On August 4th, data from National Bureau of Statistics showed that the commercial housing areas for sale have reached 191.82 million square meters by the end of the fi rst half year, up 6.4%. Historical data has showed that since 2005, the absolute number of commercial housing areas for sale was generally increased. The growth rate in 2006 and 2007 decreased, and then it went up at the end of 2008. Annual data shows commercial houses area for sale has reached 146.79 million square meters by the end of 2005, up 2.7%; the number was 145.5 million in 2006, down 0.9%; 134.63 million in 2007, down 7.5%; 186.26 million in 2008, up 38.3%; and 199.47 million in 2009, up 7.1%. According to estimates, 200 million square meters house area for sale means that there are about 220 million commercial houses. It should be noted that the area of commercial housing for sale does not include vacant housing area. If vacant housing area is included, the actual area is much more than 200 million square meters. When these houses going into the property market, what will be happenedLater in the paper, we will check housing inventories to forecast China’s house price in future.