水利工程资金流曲线分类

Classification of hydraulic engineering cash flow curves

基于项目分类的S曲线模型是一种快速、灵活的资金流预测方法,但是目前没有统一的分类方式。该文提出量化的方法用以评价不同分类方式的有效性,以三峡工程的28个单位工程为样本,选择4个指标对项目分组,通过方差分析检验各指标对资金流曲线影响的显著程度。结果表明:对曲线形状、项目类型和工期没有影响,金额略有影响,而已完成投资则影响很大。通过比较组内和组间误差的大小,证明采用合适的项目分类方式,能够有效地提高预测准确性。

The S-curve model based on project classification is a quick and flexible cash flow forecasting method but it does not have an uniform classification method.This study gives a quantization method to evaluate the validity of different classification methods.Twenty eight unit projects from the Three Gorges Project were collected for analysis with four criteria chosen to group them.ANOVA tests were conducted to identify which of these criteria significantly affected the cash flow curves.The results indicate that the project type and duration did not affect the curve shape.However,the project value has some effect with the investment having a significant influence.Comparison of the errors in and between groups shows that the prediction accuracy can be markedly improved by appropriately classifying projects.