核电站人员可靠性分析方法THERP中的班组因素

Team factors in THERP of human reliability analyses for nuclear power plants

目前核电站概率安全评价(PSA)中的人员可靠性分析(HRA)着重于个人行为特征,没有充分涵盖班组特点。该文以Sasou和Reason提出的班组失误分类方法为理论基础,分析人误概率预测技术(THERP)中班组因素构模方法。结论如下:THERP方法在诊断模型等方面已考虑了班组因素,但在模化班组导致的正/负相关性问题、相关性影响传递范围、相关性程度量化关系式等存在不足。保持THERP总体框架不变,引入故障树等方法对诱误因素进行处理,以及利用计算机模拟技术建立班组失误模型对相应环节的人误概率进行修正等,可提高THERP对班组失误的构模能力。

Human reliability analyses（HRA） in probabilistic safety assessments（PSA） of nuclear power plants concentrate on individual behavior and do not adequately reflect team characteristics.Team errors＇ taxonomy theory was used to analyze the team factors model for human error rate prediction.Some of the team-related factors are considered in the model,with some emissions,especially the modeling of positive/negative dependence caused by the team,the propagation of dependent effects and dependence quantification correlations.The team errors modeling can be improved by processing dependent errors caused by incorrect/absent information through the fault tree technique and building team models using computer simulations to update human error rates.