基于熵权的集对分析法在水资源可持续利用评价中的应用--以塔里木河三源流地区为例

The Application of Set Pair Analysis Based on Entropy Weight to Evaluation of Sustainable Water Resources Utilization——A Case Study in the Three Sources of Tarim River

以塔里木河三源流地区为研究对象,结合研究区2004-2007年统计年鉴资料,从社会经济、水资源和生态环境三方面构建水资源可持续利用评价指标体系,采用集对分析和熵权法,对研究区水资源可持续利用进行评价.结果表明:塔里木河三源流地区水资源开发利用已基本达到饱和,水资源可持续利用呈现弱不可持续状态,具体表现为和田地区(Ⅲ)>阿克苏地区(Ⅲ)>喀什地区(Ⅲ).基于评价结果提出了一些促进三源流地区水资源可持续利用的措施.

Based on the data of eco-society,water resources and eco-environment in the source regions of Tarim River from 2004 to 2007,the system of sustainable water resources utilization was set up.Combining with entropy weight,the set pair analysis（SPA）was applied to evaluate sustainable water resources utilization in the sources of Tarim River.It is found that in the sources of Tarim River,the utilization degree of water resources was basically saturated.The water resources utilization fell to a weak unsustainable level,i.e.,level Ⅲ.The rank was Hotan（Ⅲ） Aksu（Ⅲ） Kashi（Ⅲ）.For the society-economics subsystem,the rank was Auks（Ⅰ） Kasha（Ⅱ）Hotan（Ⅳ）,for the water resources subsystem,the rank was Hogan（Ⅲ） Aksu（Ⅲ）Kashi（Ⅳ）,and for the eco-environmental subsystem the rank was Hogan（Ⅱ） Aksu（Ⅱ）Kashi（Ⅲ）.Finally,based on the evaluation,a series of measurements were put forward for the purpose of sustainable water resources utilization.