张掖市可持续发展系统动力学模拟分析

An Analysis of the Sustainable Development in Zhangye Municipality Based on System Dynamics Model

基于可持续发展理论,依据系统动力学(System Dynamics,SD)原理方法,选取张掖市人口、经济、土地和水资源系统,利用SD软件Stella9.02构建张掖市SD模型.利用1990—2005年的历史数据验证模型的有效性,模拟2005—2020年间张掖市可能的社会发展模式.结果表明:在自然发展模式和经济快速发展模式下,到2020年张掖市总人口达到135.04×104人,人均GDP分别为2.57×104元和3.05×104元.两种模式中,地区产业结构严重失衡,用水总量都超过地区实际分水量;而协调发展模式下,到2020年总人口为130.11×104人,人均GDP为2.71×104元,用水总量为22.2×108 m3.相比于自然发展模式和经济快速发展模式,协调发展模式既可保证地区经济的快速发展,合理调整产业结构和用水结构,又能保护地区生态环境,是地区可持续发展的优先选择.

Regional sustainable development is characterized by high-step,multi-variables,multi-loops and non-linear feedback structure.Based on the theory of sustainable development,using the method of system dynamics to choose the population,economy,lands and water resources system of Zhangye Municipality and employing the system dynamics software Stella 9.02 to build the system dynamics model of sustainable development in accordance with the historical data from 1990 to 2000,the social development of Zhangye Municipality from 2005 to 2020 is simulated,after a validity test of the model.The simulation results show：1）Under the natural development and rapid economic development patterns,by the end of 2020,the total number of population in the municipality will amount to 135.04×104,the average GDP of each one will reach 2.57×104 $RMB and 2.71×104 $RMB,respectively.Based on existing development tendency and direction,the natural development pattern is characterized by slow economic growth and continual deterioration of ecological environment.Besides,water resources shortage will occur at 2017.Rapid economic development model is accompanied by worsening ecological environment and serious waste of water resources.Moreover,water resource waste under rapid economic development model is more serious than that in the natural development pattern.2）Under the coordinated development pattern,by the end of 2020,the total number of population in Zhangye Municipality will amount to 130.11×104,the average GDP of each one will reach 2.71×104 $RMB.The coordinated development pattern integrates the natural development pattern and the rapid economic development pattern,and considers rapid and stable economic development in the municipality.Moreover,the coordinated development pattern will reduce the water amount of agricultural and industrial consumptions,and increase the water amount consumed in environment protecting.To sum up,the coordinated development model can coordinate the development of various systems.It is the optimal choice of sustainable development model for Zhangye Municipality.Different from the previous studies about sustainable development,taking the actual characteristics of the studied municipality into consideration,this study has obtained more scientific and rational simulation results;the method of system dynamics,as used in this paper,is able to break through the barriers of the complicated modeling of traditional system dynamics.The software Stella 9.02,reflecting with icon structure of the model,makes the model structure more simple and concise.