生态环境与汾河水库输沙量的灰色关联分析和预测

Grey correlational analysis and prediction of eco-environment and silt discharge amount to the Fenhe river reservoir

汾河水库1960年开始拦洪,设计总库容量为7.2×10~7m^3。它担负着太原市的防洪、工业用水和1.0×10~5ha 的农田灌溉。水库上游包括宁武、静乐、岚县、娄烦四县,总流域面积为5268km^2。年平均降水量450—500mm,其中汛期降水占全年降水量的70—80%。建库前,多年平均输沙量达2.105×10~7m^3。

The grey system theory founded by professor Deng Julong is applied in the analysis,andas a result of which,eco-environment condition is recognized as the dominant factor influ-encing silt discharge amount at the upper reaches of the Fenhe River Reservoir.Theecological effects of water and soil conservation are analysed and predicted by three predic-tion models constructed with different time series.The fundamental measure for reducingsilt deposition in the reservoir is proposed as speeding up integrated control of water andsoil conservation at the upper reaches of the reservoir.