价格粘性、流动性约束与中国财政政策的宏观效应——动态新凯恩斯主义视角

Between the Price Stickiness,the Liquidity Restriction and the Macroeconomic Effects of China's Fiscal Policies

2008年次贷危机爆发以后,世界一些大国纷纷采取积极财政政策以应对危机,财政政策的宏观经济效应再次引发关注。基于此,本文选取中国宏观经济运行季度数据,利用SVAR方法得出中国财政政策宏观效应的经验事实:政府支出增加对总产量、消费产生正效应;税收增加对总产量和消费产生负效应。然而,完全竞争背景下的真实周期模型却不能完全解释这些经验事实。于是,本文在动态随机一般均衡框架下,以垄断竞争为经济背景,引入价格粘性、流动性约束、政府支出的正外部性以及投资调整成本等非完全竞争的因素,构建一动态新凯恩斯主义模型,数值模拟发现:流动性约束、政府支出的正外部性在解释中国财政政策效应的经验事实中充当重要角色,而仅有价格粘性并不意味着政府支出具有挤入效应特征。这预示着,中国政府在实施财政政策时可能要考虑到经济运行中的一些不完全竞争因素对政策效果的影响。

Since the subprime crisis occurred in 2008,some big countries have,one after another,adopted active fiscal policies to deal with this crisis,and the macroeconomic effect of the fiscal policy has attracted great attention once again.For this reason,we have,by the use of the quarterly data on the operation of China's macroeconomy and by the use of the method of SVAR,obtained the facts about the experience in the macro effect of China's fiscal polices.We have discovered that the increase in governmental expenditure produces positive effect on aggregate output and consumption,and that the increase in tax has negative effect on aggregate output and consumption. However,the real business cycle model in an environment for pure competition cannot completely explain these facts mentioned above.Therefore,within the framework of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, and taking monopolistic competition as the economic background,we have,in this paper,introduced factors of incomplete competition such as the price stickiness,liquidity restriction,the positive externality of the government expenditure,and the cost of investment adjustment and constructed a new dynamic Keynesian model.After we have simulated the numerical value,we have found that the liquidity restriction and the positive externality of the governmental expenditure have played an important role in the interpretation of the above-mentioned facts about the effect of China's fiscal policies,and that the price stickiness itself does not mean that the government expenditure has no effect on'squeezing in'.Our conclusions mean that the Chinese government will,perhaps, consider the impact of some imperfect competition elements on the results of policies when implementing its fiscal policies.